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Forecasting COVID-19 in the United States

About this event

Since March 2020, Dr. Christopher Murray and his team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have produced weekly forecasts of COVID-19, projecting the future trajectory of infections, hospitalizations and deaths under different scenarios. IHME is the coordinating center for the Global Burden of Disease study, a global collaborative study that quantifies health loss from hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for 195 countries from 1990 to present. Building on this work, IHME also produces forecasts of a wide range of health outcomes. When the pandemic hit, IHME was able to quickly pivot to producing projections of the pandemic, first for its local hospital system at the University of Washington and now for over 230 locations, updated weekly.

Dr. Murray’s talk will focus on IHME’s forecasts of COVID-19 for the United States, what we have learned over the past 19 months and where we are headed.

Who can attend

Registration is limited to ISMIE and SEMPIC policyholders, ISMS members, and their employed staff.

Learning objectives

At the conclusion of this learning activity, participants will be able to:

  1. Gain a better understanding of infectious disease modeling
  2. Recognize the major drivers of future projections of the COVID-19 pandemic
  3. Identify some of the key challenges to producing better evidence on population health

About the presenter

Professor Murray’s career has focused on improving health for everyone worldwide by improving health evidence. A physician and health economist, his work has led to the development of a range of new methods and empirical studies to strengthen health measurement, analyze the performance of public health and medical care systems, and assess the cost-effectiveness of health technologies. IHME provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them.

Before founding IHME, Murray served as Executive Director, Evidence and Information for Policy Cluster at the World Health Organization, Director, Harvard Initiative for Global Health and Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, and Richard Saltonstall Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard School of Public Health. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Medicine (NAM) and 2018 co-recipient of the John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health Award.


This activity has been planned and implemented in accordance with the accreditation requirements and policies of the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint providership of the Illinois State Medical Society and ISMIE Mutual Insurance Company. The Illinois State Medical Society is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians.

Credit Designation

The Illinois State Medical Society designates this live activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditsTM. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.


There are no relevant financial relationships with ACCME-defined commercial interests for anyone who was in control of the content of this activity.

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