Why are clean energy forecasts always completely wrong?

A paper came across our desk last week entitled “Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition,” and immediately Rethink Energy had a case of Déjà vu.

The first time we ever did an energy forecast we looked at it and decided we could not possibly publish it, because it was twice the size of those of our rivals – we were tempted to tone it down a little bit. Here was a series of forecasts that were not toned down – from people who are not experts in energy markets but complex systems modellers and mathematicians.

So we just HAD to invite them to come and tell us about it at one of the Rethink Energy Webinars. Yes this is why forecasters get energy so wrong, and it points to a better future for forecasters.

Come and listen to Matt Ives and Moritz Riede, explaining how they reached the conclusion that renewables are going to be SO MUCH BIGGER THAN EVERYONE REALIZES.

Hear answers to these questions:

• Why do most forecasters of energy get it completely wrong and how can we fix this?
• Why are the costs of these new technologies always over-estimates?
• How can you use probabilistic forecasting to change this approach?
• If future energy system costs are going to go down, does that mean cheaper energy?
• What does this mean for solar, wind, batteries, and hydrogen electrolyzers?
• What advances are we likely to see in the next decade in solar?
• Are their material bottlenecks that could slow down this transition (Cobalt for batteries)?
• And why are we stuck right now with ballooning natural gas costs?

Mathew Ives is a Senior Researcher in Complex Systems Economic Modelling at the Oxford Martin school and Professor Moritz Riede is a Professor of Soft Functional Nanomaterials

Format: Presentation followed by questions from Rethink founder Peter White then audience questions